Is This The Calm Before The Storm?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean almost two weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. It never became organized enough to worry about, but despite a quiet May, indications are that this could be an active hurricane season.

There were no named storms in the Northern Hemisphere through the middle of May this year. Over the past 75 Atlantic hurricane seasons, there have only been five other years that did not produce a named storm through May 15. That doesn't mean we can let our guard down, as most forecasters are predicting an active hurricane season for 2025. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. There is a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10percent chance of a below-normal season, according to the NOAA. Colorado State University has issued a similar forecast, calling for 17 named storms compared to the average of 14.4 during the period from 1991 to 2020.

A NHC tropical weather outlook noted the wave that developed in the middle of May. The product is posted on the NHC's website to help identify and monitor potential systems that could intensify.

"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," said Larry Kelly, a hurricane specialist with the NHC, per the News-Press.

"It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days. This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes, and hazardous marine and beach conditions."

Any hurricanes that develop this season have the potential to be supercharged by our overheating planet. Hurricane Helene, the most deadly hurricane to strike the United States since Katrina in 2005, got an energy boost from superheated oceans last year. The unusually warm seas that spawned this historic hurricane were 200 times more likely because of our warming world.

Melting glaciers and ice sheets are raising sea levels. Rising sea levels have compelled coastal communities to restore sand dunes and beaches as a natural defense against storm surges. Higher seas mean more destructive storms as storm surges penetrate farther inland along coastlines.